HGS RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT – Modeling low-flow bedrock springs providing ecological habitats with climate change scenarios
Levison, J., Larocque, M., & Ouellet, M. A. (2014). Modeling low-flow bedrock springs providing ecological habitats with climate change scenarios. In Journal of Hydrology (Vol. 515, pp. 16–28). Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.04.042
“A three dimensional fully integrated discrete fracture numerical model was constructed using HydroGeoSphere[…] for the purpose of simulating spring flow at various elevations for the reference period and future predicted climate scenarios...”
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In this research highlight, researchers used HydroGeoSphere (HGS) to investigate the impact of low-flow bedrock springs on ecological habitats under various climate change scenarios, with a focus on the effects on aquatic species such as salamanders. These bedrock springs are critical for sustaining ecosystems, and understanding their future dynamics is essential for effective conservation.
By applying HGS, researchers were able to model how changes in climate variables—such as temperature and precipitation— might affect spring discharge. This detailed analysis provided insights into potential shifts in spring flow and their subsequent impacts on the ecosystems supported by these springs.
“The flexibility of changing the discretization and the need to represent the bedrock springs more realistically from a physical perspective using discrete fractures led to the development of the local scale model using HydroGeoSphere.”
Fig. 4. The numerical model domain showing the discrete fractures: (a) oblique view with centre of model magnified; (b) side view of fracture domain. Between the fractures is an impermeable rock matrix. The four simulated springs are located between x = 1800 m and 2400 m, indicated in part b.
The findings highlighted that climate change could significantly alter the flow characteristics of low-flow bedrock springs. For example, under warmer and drier conditions, some springs might experience reduced flow, which can have detrimental effects on aquatic habitats, particularly for species like salamanders that rely on stable, cool water conditions. The study specifically assessed the habitat requirements of several salamander species, which are known to be sensitive to changes in their aquatic environment. The researchers found that reduced spring flow could lead to a decline in suitable habitats for these salamanders, affecting their population and overall health.
By integrating HGS modelling results with ecological assessments, the research highlights the importance of considering climate change projections in water resource management, ecosystem health and habitat conservation for endangered species. The simulations not only identified potential vulnerabilities in spring flow but also pinpointed critical areas where adaptive management could be essential to preserving these vital habitats and the species they support.
Summary:
Groundwater discharge areas, including low-flow bedrock aquifer springs, are ecologically important and can be impacted by climate change. The development of and results from a groundwater modelling study simulating fractured bedrock spring flow are presented. This was conducted to produce hydrological data for an ecohydrological study of an endangered species, Allegheny Mountain Dusky Salamanders (Desmognathus ochrophaeus), in southern Quebec, Canada. The groundwater modelling approach in terms of scale and complexity was strongly driven by the need to produce hydrological data for the related ecohydrological modelling. Flows at four springs at different elevations were simulated for recent past conditions (2006–2010) and for reference (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) periods using precipitation and temperature data from ten climate scenarios. Statistical analyses of spring flow parameters including activity periods and duration of flow were conducted. Flow rates for the four simulated springs, located at different elevations, are predicted to increase between 2% and 46% and will be active (flowing) 1–2% longer in the future. A significant change (predominantly an increase) looking at the seasonality of the number of active days occurs in the winter (2–4.9%) and spring seasons (−0.6–6.5%). Greatest flow rates were produced from springs at elevations where sub-horizontal fractures intersect the ground surface. These results suggest an intensification of the spring activity at the study site in context of climate change by 2050, which provides a positive habitat outlook for the endangered salamanders residing in the springs for the future.